New Business Models, Born of Crisis

Along with danger, crisis is represented by opportunity. John F. Kennedy The Business Model Conversation For many years I’ve had discussions with innovation teams about business model choices and making pivots. It’s a tough conversation, especially since in any normal business climate there is little impetus to change business models. Most companies have an established business model that works, and…

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How Hambrecht Uses Machine Learning to Up its Venture Hit Rate 3X

Venture capital is a “hit business.” The relatively few hits pay for the flops. And it's the tantalizing possibility of a mega-hit that animates the industry, that keeps investors dreaming, prospecting and writing checks. For venture capitalists, it’s the hits and the mega-hits that make the high flop rate tolerable. But is frequent venture failure inescapable? Could a probabilistic approach…

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Intuition is for Scoundrels

Whenever you hear the words “intuition” and “decision” in the same sentence… run.  Don’t just run, sprint like a third-grader.  Sometimes this will make you look odd, but that’s a risk worth taking.  To warp a line from Bob Dylan – intuition is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. (more…)

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When complete decisions are a bad idea

Academic. Theoretical. Anecdotal. These are the kinds of things people say about business decision research – and they don’t mean it as a complement. Research about how people make decisions is often seen as “interesting but useless.”  It passes the time on an airplane but doesn’t lead to better decisions as a practical matter. (more…)

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