How Hambrecht Uses Machine Learning to Up its Venture Hit Rate 3X

Venture capital is a “hit business.” The relatively few hits pay for the flops. And it's the tantalizing possibility of a mega-hit that animates the industry, that keeps investors dreaming, prospecting and writing checks. For venture capitalists, it’s the hits and the mega-hits that make the high flop rate tolerable. But is frequent venture failure inescapable? Could a probabilistic approach…

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Intuition is for Scoundrels

Whenever you hear the words “intuition” and “decision” in the same sentence… run.  Don’t just run, sprint like a third-grader.  Sometimes this will make you look odd, but that’s a risk worth taking.  To warp a line from Bob Dylan – intuition is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. (more…)

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When complete decisions are a bad idea

Academic. Theoretical. Anecdotal. These are the kinds of things people say about business decision research – and they don’t mean it as a complement. Research about how people make decisions is often seen as “interesting but useless.”  It passes the time on an airplane but doesn’t lead to better decisions as a practical matter. (more…)

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